One of the biggest and, personally, most frustrating storylines of the 2023 NFL offseason was the continued devaluation of the running back position. It’s a story that is still developing in the 2024 offseason.

Last year, five of the most productive running backs in the NFL became free agents: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler. Four of them had finished the previous season with over 1,000 rushing yards (Jacobs led the league with 1,653 yards), while the fifth (Ekeler) ran for 915 yards and tied for fifth in the league (which includes wide receivers and tight ends) in pass receptions with 107. After the dust of lowball offers and restrictive franchise tags and threats to hold out had settled, four of those five free-agent backs re-signed with their respective teams for can’t-complain but less-than-ideal money, however not one inked a multi-year deal. Cook, who was only available because the Minnesota Vikings surprisingly cut him after his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl season, split his 2023 season between the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens in an uncharacteristically unproductive campaign. One star running back who surprisingly got what he wanted last offseason was Jonathan Taylor, who — although he wasn’t a free agent — signed a three-year, $42 million contract extension with the Indianapolis Colts after making it clear he would hold out if necessary.

(On a personal note, the running back devaluation bothers me not only because I hate to see hard-working athletes in a dangerous sport receive less than what they’re worth, but also because I grew up idolizing running backs and wanting to be one as a kid when I played football. Plus, my Dad was a fullback in high school. I wound up playing cornerback. But many of my favorite players are still running backs.)

While the steady decrease in respect and revenue for pro running backs has been an issue for years, in 2023 it reached a tipping point. Fans and media really started paying attention to the downward trend, prompting a lot of social media debates and journalism thinkpieces. Current and former players (not just those who played running back) began speaking up about the economic positional discrepancy. It felt like change might be on the horizon … but then the Kansas City Chiefs went out and won another Super Bowl with a lead back (Isiah Pacheco) who was drafted in the seventh round, who isn’t a household name, and who didn’t crack the hallowed 1,000-yard benchmark. It furthered the anti-RB argument that NFL teams don’t need to pay running backs top dollar or spend high draft picks on RBs because (1) you don’t need an elite RB to win a championship, and (2) RBs are interchangeable assets that you can find anywhere.

After an ominous start, however, the 2024 offseason has been promising.

The Tennessee Titans decided to let RB Derrick Henry walk in free agency, despite him being the face of their franchise, arguably the best back in the NFL, and only 30 years old. But Henry scored a two-year deal with the title-contending Ravens for some decent money. Tennessee then replaced Henry by signing Pollard, formerly of the Dallas Cowboys, to a three-year deal.

The Miami Dolphins signed their lead back, Raheem Mostert, to a two-year contract even if at 32 years old he’s a senior citizen by the new NFL running-back standards. The rebuilding New England Patriots, who need upgrades at just about every position and are notoriously thrifty, committed to RB Antonio Gibson with a three-year contract. D’Andre Swift, who cracked 1,000 yards in his first season as a starter with the Philadelphia Eagles, landed a three-year deal with the Chicago Bears. Zack Moss, who had a half-season breakout showcase for the Colts while Taylor was out of the lineup, was rewarded with a two-year deal by the Cincinnati Bengals. The Houston Texans, meanwhile, traded for the Bengals’ lead back, Joe Mixon, and secured him to a three-year extension.

Jacobs, despite a disappointing 2023 follow-up to his career-best 2022 season, left the Las Vegas Raiders and cashed in with the Green Bay Packers for $48 million over four years. Barkley, who couldn’t get the New York Giants to pay him like the face of their franchise that he was, left for their rival Philadelphia Eagles on a three-year, $37.75 million contract. Ekeler landed a two-year deal with the Washington Commanders.

In this free agency cycle it was less about running backs signing for huge dollar amounts; it was more about RBs getting what they collectively wanted more than anything: security in terms of the length of contract. NFL players in general dislike the franchise tag because, even though it provides a hefty salary for one year, it’s only a one-year deal. Most players, it seems, would trade a couple million dollars for a couple more years of commitment at a fair price.

The next test for the NFL’s valuation (or devaluation) of running backs is the draft, which begins April 25.

At the same time RBs have been getting raw deals in free agency, in recent years they’ve also become less and less valued in the draft. There was once a time when it was routine for superstar college running backs to get picked in the top five of the draft, if not the No. 1 overall pick. Twenty years ago, eventual Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk was picked second in the 1994 draft; the following year, RB Ki-Jana Carter was chosen with the first pick — but his career never really got off the ground after he suffered a serious knee injury in his rookie year. That was the last time a running back was drafted first. When Barkley was picked second in 2018, and when the Atlanta Falcons picked RB Bijan Robinson seventh in 2023, it was viewed as a radical break from the new normal, in which teams often shy away from using any first-round picks on running backs.

With a potential new appreciation for running backs showing itself in 2024 free agency, what will the 2024 draft look like for running backs?

The Ringer‘s most recent mock draft does not have a running back going in the first round. In its overall ranking of the top 70 players in the draft, the highest-rated RB doesn’t show up until 43rd, that being Florida State’s Trey Benson — followed by Texas’ Jonathon Brooks 44th, Michigan’s Blake Corum 52nd, Tennessee’s Jaylin Wright 55th, and USC’s Marshawn Lloyd 66th.

In the most recent mock draft by Walter Football, the first running back comes off the board with the 56th pick in the second round (Benson going to the Cowboys). The next back doesn’t go until the beginning of the third round with the 65th pick (Brooks to the Carolina Panthers). By the time the third running back is drafted (Corum to the Packers with the 88th pick), Walter Football predicts seven quarterbacks will have been taken.

Yahoo Sports writer Matt Harmon looked at what each NFL team could do in this draft to address their running back situation. He categorized three teams as being in “critical need” of a running back — the Cowboys, Giants, and Los Angeles Chargers — but doesn’t predict either team will use a first-round pick on a RB. And of the five teams categorized as being in “moderate need” of a RB, Harmon suggests two of them (Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears) won’t bother using any draft picks on running backs.

If the prognosticators are on-point, the 2024 draft will not exactly complement this year’s free agency cycle and represent a seismic shift in the perceived value of running backs. But there’s always a chance that one of the running backs who gets picked in this draft will develop into a star that could reset the market at what was once a position of glory in the NFL.