2024 NBA playoffs: 10 rookies to watch

With a few spectacular exceptions, NBA rookies are usually an afterthought by the time the league calendar turns to the playoffs.

For every Magic Johnson (NBA Finals MVP as a rookie in 1980) and Bill Russell (24.4 rebounds per game as a rookie during Boston’s 1957 title run), there are countless first-year pros who spend their first postseason either watching the action from bench, or watching from their couch at home.

It’s not hard to figure out: The structure of the NBA draft makes it so the best rookies often wind up on the worst teams, while the best teams either don’t have rotation minutes or roster spots available for rookies because they have established veterans doing the heavy lifting. That’s how you get future superstars like Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James missing the playoffs in their rookie seasons, and future superstars like Kobe Bryant and Jimmy Butler playing minor roles on playoff teams in their rookie seasons.

The 2023-24 NBA season covers the spectrum in that respect, thanks to some unique circumstances. The presumptive Rookie of the Year award winner and future (already?) superstar, Victor Wembanyama, will miss the playoffs as his San Antonio Spurs have the worst record in the Western Conference at 19-58 through Saturday’s schedule. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder are locked into the playoffs and fighting for the No. 1 seed in the West with rookie Chet Holmgren as arguably their second-best player; Holmgren was actually drafted in 2022 but is in the Rookie of the Year race because an injury sidelined him for all of the 2022-23 season.

Headlined by Holmgren, where are 10 rookies that could play a significant role in the upcoming 2024 postseason.

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Anthony Black, PG, Orlando Magic

The sixth pick in the 2023 draft out of Arkansas fits right into Orlando’s ideal super-sized lineup: He’s a 6-foot-7 point guard that can help give the Magic more height, length, and defensive versatility than most teams. Through Saturday’s schedule, Orlando is a half-game behind Cleveland for the No. 3 seed in the East, and they’re making it happen with a top-five defense in the league.

Black has started 33 games and is averaging 17.4 minutes. In addition to his defense he’s making 38.5 percent of his 3-pointers, which ranks near the top of the list for rookies who have taken enough threes to qualify.

Jordan Hawkins, SG, New Orleans Pelicans

The 14th pick in the ’23 draft helped UConn win college basketball’s national championship last season, and he’s now trying to pull off an individual repeat by helping the Pelicans in their quest for an NBA title this season. While UConn dominated on its way to that chip, New Orleans will have a tougher road as they’re currently battling to stay out of the play-in round in the West.

Hawkins was considered the best shooter in this rookie class going into the season, and he’s shown that strength of his game by making 83.8 percent of his free throws and 36.7 percent of his 3-pointers while ranking third on the team in made threes.

Chet Holmgren, C, Oklahoma City Thunder

In his second season in the league but his first season actually playing in the league, Holmgren is averaging 16.6 points (third among all rookies), 7.9 rebounds (second) and 2.4 blocks (second) for the Thunder, who through Saturday’s schedule are 1.5 games behind Denver for the West’s top seed.

If there’s any rookie who has a decent chance to become a full-blown star during this upcoming postseason, it’s Holmgren. The second pick in the ’22 draft has been showing his all-around skill set as a pro, from his defensive game-changing ability to his ball-handling to his shooting range, and even a willingness to take clutch shots and not always defer to vets on his team. If he’s on top of his game, Chet will be a big part of OKC making a real run at a championship.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, PF, Golden State Warriors

Throughout the season, Warriors Twitter begged coach Steve Kerr to give TJD a bigger role on the team. It wasn’t until March when the rookie finally averaged more than 20 minutes per game, and with the uptick in playing time, Jackson-Davis has averaged over 10 points and seven rebounds per game in March and April. The son of former NBA player Dale Davis was the second-to-last pick in the ’23 draft despite being a consensus first team All-American at Indiana.

Golden State needs his size and interior offense as the aging core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green tries to make one more deep playoff run, although Golden State finds itself stuck in 10th place in the West for the final play-in spot.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF/PF, Miami Heat

Jaquez may have been the most pro-ready of any rookie in the 2023-24 class, which wasn’t a surprise, as he was one of its few four-year college players. The UCLA alum joined a fully functional NBA title-contending team and assimilated right into the rotation; by the end of November, Jaquez was logging 30-minute, 20-point outings and making people wonder how he fell as far as 18th in the draft.

A lock for First Team All-Rookie, he’s averaging 12.0 points and 3.8 rebounds in over 28 minutes per game, and has been a key piece for the reigning Eastern Conference champion. He ranks in scoring among rookies who are on likely playoff teams, trailing only Holmgren. And Jaquez has been consistent for a Heat team that is a half-game back of the sixth seed despite dealing with injuries all season long.

Dereck Lively II, C, Dallas Mavericks

While every defense that encounters the Mavericks will have its attention focused on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, an opportunistic 7-footer like Lively can feast on open dunks, lob passes and putbacks. The 12th pick in the ’23 draft out of Duke has been a fixture in Dallas’ starting lineup as a rookie, averaging 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game.

The Mavericks, currently in fifth place in the West, have no problem scoring points led by Luka and Kyrie. This team’s challenge will be its ability to stop opponents from scoring more points — and that’s where a rim protector like Lively becomes one of the Dallas’ most valuable players in the postseason.

Brandin Podziemski, SG, Golden State Warriors

A couple years ago, the Warriors went about a bold (and expensive) experiment of keeping their championship core together while developing their next core in real time on the same roster: Steph, Klay and Draymond would groom Jordan Poole, Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga to be their eventual replacements (with James Wiseman also in the mix). After Golden State won another championship in 2022, though, things fell apart. The aftermath of a fight between Draymond and Poole led to Poole being traded. Wiseman was also sent away, labeled a bust after being picked No. 2 in the 2020 draft. Moody and Kuminga are still around, but only Kuminga has really shown the potential to be an All-Star level player. The experiment as we knew it didn’t really work.

This season, though, the Warriors may have found another heir apparent. Podziemski, the 19th pick in the draft out of Santa Clara, has been a part-time starter and helped keep the 10th-seeded Warriors afloat during a rocky season in which Klay was actually moved to the bench.

Podz is averaging 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 26 minutes per game. If the Warriors make it out of the play-in round, Podz will likely play a significant part in Curry and Co. making at least one more heroic run.

Julian Strawther, SF, Denver Nuggets

Last year, Christian Braun made his presence felt as a rookie on the NBA champion Nuggets; in Game 3 of the Finals, Braun had 15 points on 7-of-8 shooting, helping give Denver a 2-1 series lead over Miami and pave the way for the Nuggets’ first NBA title as a franchise.

This year, Strawther could be the rookie who makes his mark for the champs. The 29th pick out of Gonzaga, he’s only played 11 minutes per game in the regular season … but keep in mind, Braun had only played 15 minutes per game last season before his NBA Finals breakout.

Strawther has had a couple shining moments: he scored 21 points with five 3-pointers in an early November win over New Orleans; he had 22 points, six threes and five steals in a December win over Atlanta. He could deliver one or two more and help Denver repeat as champs.

Sasha Vezenkov, PF, Sacramento Kings

The Kings, who as of Saturday were in ninth place in the West, have the uncommon luxury an NBA rookie on their roster that has extensive professional postseason experience. That’s because Vezenkov is 28 years old and a veteran of European pro leagues before he came to the NBA this season. In 2023, Vezenkov was EuroLeague MVP and won his second Greek League championship. He’s also won championships in Spain.

Vezenkov hasn’t seen a lot of playing tome with Sacramento, averaging 5.6 points in 12 minutes per game, and only getting on the court in 39 games. But when the intensity ramps up in the postseason, his experience and poise under pressure could earn him a more prominent role.

Cason Wallace, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder

After Holmgren, the other impact rookie on the Thunder is Wallace, the team’s top pick in the ’23 draft (10th overall) out of Kentucky. Wallace came into the pros renowned for his defense, and he’s lived up to the hype with five games this season in which he had four steals apiece. But he’s also given OKC some offense, averaging 6.9 points off the bench and hitting 41.7 percent of his 3-pointers.

Wallace so far hasn’t been a guy who will take over a game, but he will make that one game-saving defensive stop, that one momentum-swinging offensive play; in a sense he’s reminiscent of a young Jrue Holiday, who had a similar impact as a rookie and developed into a top-three guy on a championship team later in his career.

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